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When to stop hopping?

A little Background:

Promoted to Senior in IT Audit with a Big 4, received 20% increase; Left a few months later for another 18% bump.  Been here 6 months.

Pros: come in around 9, leave around 430.  Like my boss.  No micromanaging. Variety of work outside of your typical SOX work. Virtually no stress. Bonus will be 15-20%. Base increase will be around 3-4%.  Variety of different projects to be a part of outside the audit department.

Cons: There isn't much room for growth or promotion, so in 2 – 3 years, I will be in the same position, same role, etc.; They aren't known for very strong raises other than a normal Cost of Living Adjustment. Not much opportunity to gain management skills.

The issue that prompted this is that for the shortterm, this is a great place to be.  For the Longterm, there isn't much opportunity other than a solid bonus and work life balance.  It's a large enough company, that I am gaining solid skills in various systems and ERP's and other projects related to implementations, and Im not burdened by SOX 6 months out of the year.

I have an opportunity with another F500.

Pros: 20% bump on top of my current base. Lots of opportunity for growth.  Similar commute. Better opportunities to gain experience with ERPs. 

Cons: No Bonus potential until manager. 1 less week of PTO. Could potentially have to work 8:30 – 5:30. Potentially more of a micromanaging environment. More SOX work than what I'm currently doing.

So, do I leave for a higher base with the unknowns and the better potential, or do I enjoy where I'm at for the next couple years and move on?  You only have so much time to accelerate your base pay.  I've always been under the impression that you should go to the highest bidder assuming all other factors are relatively equal.  Obviously it's not all about the money, but there is a part of me that values a sure thing more than potential. They also dont seem to care too much about my work history.  From what I hear, people with a background in IT Audit are in demand.   

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