Tax Policy Nerds Try to Debunk Each Other’s Debunking Over “The Largest Tax Hike in History”

You may have seen some tax-hating, freedom-loving types waving flags, flying planes with banners and screaming from the rooftops that if the Bush tax cuts expire that it will be “the largest tax hike in history.”

The argument has been made and questioned ad nauseum but yesterday Ryan Ellis of Americans for Tax Reform (founded by Grover Norquist, so you get the context) felt the urge to prove the point once again that this will be the largest freedom-hijacking ever:

CBO projects that nominal GDP over the next decade will be $187.7 trillion over this decade. In order for the Obama tax hikes to be bigger than THE TO WIN WORLD WAR II, it would need to be at least 5.04 percent of this, or $9.46 trillion.

Gerald Prante over at the Tax Foundation’s Tax Policy Blog isn’t amused with this latest attempt:

Ellis is thereby admitting that it’s simply not the largest tax hike in American history. When you say “history,” that includes the 1940s. If you want to exclude WWII, say peacetime. Furthermore, the Treasury study that Ellis bases these claims off only goes back to the 1940s, which means that we don’t even know the relative size of tax hikes pre-1940, such as when the individual income tax was initiated and ramped up. So in summary, we can say that you have to knock off about 170 years of American history in order to make Ellis’s claim only possibly defensible.

Hmmm. We have to give that point to Prante there. You can’t just say “the biggest tax hike in history” and then say “except for that one time.”

And while we’re splitting hairs, we (i.e. the US of A) can’t really take credit for killing Hitler, can we? The Führer killed himself under duress from the Soviets. So there’s that.

Anyhoo, back to the subject – Ellis than tallies up all the tax “hikes”:

The 2011 income tax hikes. These are the rate hikes, the capital gains and dividend hikes, the return of the marriage penalty and the death tax, etc. CBO score: $2.567 trillion

Failing to index the alternative minimum tax (AMT) to inflation. CBO score: $558 billion

Failing to stop dozens of business tax hikes (“extenders”). CBO score: $1.969 trillion

Interactive effects of all these. CBO score: $606 billion

Obamacare tax hikes. CBO score: $525 billion

Add all of these up, and you get to $6.225 trillion over the next decade.

Prante fires back, noting that Ellis is making an auditor to tax accountant comparison:

Ellis classifies a compilation of “tax hikes” that are set to go into effect as one giant tax hike, including AMT expiration, the extenders bill, Making Work Pay, and even health care reform. There are two problems with this. First off, Ellis and ATR have a countdown clock on the ATR website (which is off by one hour by the way due to Daylight Savings Time) saying “countdown to the biggest tax increase in American history.” Well, virtually all of the health care tax hikes, which he counts in his tax hike amount, don’t kick in until 2013 (731 days from January 1, 2011). Therefore, this is inconsistent. Furthermore, summing up all the tax hikes and counting them as one big tax hike is inconsistent with the Treasury study cited earlier. If you want to count all the “tax hikes” occurring under Obama as one big tax hike, then shouldn’t you do the same for previous administrations?

Right! If you’re going to have a countdown clock, shouldn’t it be accurate?

Wrapping up, Ellis says:

Expressed as a percentage of the economy, this is 3.31 percent of GDP. That’s the largest tax hike in history, except for the one that was used to fight simultaneous wars in Europe, North Africa, and the Asian Pacific Rim.

You got us, guys. It’s a mere 3.31 percent of GDP.

Final retort from Prante:

The Treasury study referenced wouldn’t even consider letting the tax cuts to expire to be a tax hike because there was no act of Congress. Has Ellis done a review of history to make sure that no tax cut has expired elsewhere in history that was not counted in this Treasury study (given that Ellis considers an expiring tax cut to be a tax hike)?

This is a good question. Have you done your research into historically impotent and unwilling legislative bodies? Because if you haven’t, then you’d find that the group we’ve got up there now seems to have pretty awesome ability to do exactly nothing (read: estate tax).

Whether past flaccidity demonstrated by Congress has resulted in larger “tax hikes” remains unknown but something tells us that since none of this is getting resolved any time soon, we’ll get an answer.

Largest Tax Hike in History? Outside of Killing Hitler, Yes. [ATR.org]
Is Allowing Tax Cuts to Expire the Largest Tax Increase in American History? The Question Revisited [Tax Foundation]

U.S. Senate Continues to Successfully Bicker Over Tax Cuts

Dick Durbin is über-confident that nothing is going to happen prior to election day, which means he and his colleagues will have to sneak it in between then and December 31st when the cuts expire.

“The reality is we’re not going to pass” the tax cuts before the election,” said Durbin of Illinois. He blamed politics, saying “we are so tightly wound up in this campaign” that a bipartisan agreement to act won’t be reached.

Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, a North Dakota Democrat, said “it’s clear there aren’t 60 votes for any proposal, so no proposal is going to pass at this point.”

Sixty votes would be needed for a tax-cut extension to advance in the Senate.

Our concern is that some of Durbin’s friends in the Senate will be losers come November 2nd and may feel like sticking it to the entire country purely out of spite. It would be a mistake for anyone to overestimate the maturity level of any member of Congress.

Durbin Says Senate Won’t Pass Tax Cut Extension Before Election [Bloomberg]

Earlier:
Gerri Willis Doesn’t Care What A Couple of Old Men Think About Tax Cuts

Gerri Willis Doesn’t Care What A Couple of Old Men Think About Tax Cuts

In case you haven’t heard, there’s a bit of a debate over what to do about the expiring Bush tax cuts. And because it’s an election year, they make for a perfect political pigskin to throw around.

Fox Business Network is marking this momentous occasion with Taxed to Death Week (a demise that we do wish for our worst enemies) and wons to Gerri Willis of the Willis Report.

Going Concern: Tax cuts are a pretty popular way for politicians to pander to their constituents. It seems pretty convenient that they are set to expire right after the mid-term elections. Who should we blame for this?

Gerri Willis: There are plenty of people to blame – George W. Bush put them into place way back in ’01 and ‘03 and we knew way back then they had an expiration date – so take yer choices, there are plenty of politicians to point the finger at.


GC: And God knows Americans need someone to blame. Since Congress let the estate tax expire, is there a real risk that the tax cuts could expire without any action?

GW: Sure, it’s actually the easiest action to take because it requires absolutely no effort on the part of anybody – Congress doesn’t have to do anything. The President doesn’t even have to pick up a pen to sign the bill. They could all just dither until midnight December 31. Whoosh! Tax hikes.

GC: Just like tornadoes in Brooklyn. And that’s not good for anybody. Anyway, there’s a lot of information and misinformation out there with regard to the tax cuts. Can we safely assume that objectivity is taking a back seat to political gain and Americans are at the mercy of the rich and powerful (who, incidentally, are the ones greatest affected by the ultimate outcome)? How can Americans know what’s really going to happen? How can accountants best sort through all the noise to best serve their clients?

GW: Surprise! Politics are involved – of course they are, but Americans aren’t stooges. There are plenty of places to get objective information on the tax cuts. I’d suggest Fox Business and The Willis Report. Frankly there is no way for accountants or anyone else to know what is going to happen – Congress is really holding us hostage – my financial advisor sources say nobody is going on vacation in December because they know that something can happen anytime that will change the landscape.

GC: Here’s something strange – Warren Buffet has indicated that he’s in favor of eliminating tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans. Alan Greenspan is in favor of letting all the tax cuts expire. So we have one of the richest people in the world saying he’s willing to pay more taxes and the former head of the Federal Reserve saying that everyone should pay more taxes. Generally speaking, these are smart guys. Are they onto something or is this a sign that we need to start ignoring everything that old men say?

GW: Okay, to be fair here there is wealthy and then there is wealthy, right? $250,000 in San Francisco or LA or NYC is not the same thing as $250,000 in Omaha or Comanche TX. And, Greenspan simply continues to try to resurrect his reputation which was harmed by the mortgage meltdown.

GC: Ultimately though, the one thing Congress agrees on is that tax cuts for the middle class should stay and the big debate is whether the wealthy get a short extension on their cuts or a “permanent” (although it’s not really permanent) one. But do rich people really need an additional moderately-priced BMW?

GW: Heehee. Maybe they won’t buy a BMW – maybe they’ll hire someone! The thing for the middle class to know is that it isn’t just your income taxes at stake – there are a handful of beloved middle class tax credits at stake too – write-offs for college loan interest; child tax credit; and of course there is no AMT patch yet this year – if that doesn’t come to pass tens of thousands of Americans could owe AMT — a tragedy.

Car Dealers Indicted for Tax Fraud; Profession’s Shifty Reputation Remains Intact

Plus, one of the (alleged!) tax fraudsters is facing seven counts of manslaughter. Impressive.

James Pflueger, a landowner facing seven counts of manslaughter on Kauai for the deaths of seven people killed when the Kaloko dam broke in 2006, was indicted Wednesday by a federal grand jury for tax fraud.

Altogether, five defendants were charged with conspiracy to defraud the U.S. for the purpose of obstructing the Internal Revenue Service in its collection of taxes.


They include Pflueger’s son, Charles Alan Pflueger, who owns car dealership Pflueger Inc.; company chief financial officer Randall Ken Kurata; Charles Alan Pflueger’s executive assistant, Julie Ann Kam; and certified public accountant Dennis Lawrence Duban.

James Pflueger, 83, is the former owner of the company.

The Plfuegers are proven business people but they simply can’t be expected to have the first damn clue about these tax matters:

Dave Scheper, an attorney representing Charles Alan Pflueger, issued a statement denying any wrongdoing by his client and also vowed a vigorous defense.

“He is a proven businessperson who always acts in good faith, but he is not and has never pretended to be a tax accountant,” Scheper said.

So naturally, the blame is going straight to the CPA in this case, Dennis Duban, but not because he screwed over Pflueger & son and their sterling reputations but because he just plain sucks at preparing tax returns.

An attorney for Duban said he looks forward to arguing the case in court. “We are confident that after a jury hears all of the evidence, Dennis will be completely exonerated,” said attorney Michael Purpura.

This is one of those cases where it will take about five minutes of poking the accountant with a stick and he’ll flip.

Retired Car Dealer Indicted by Federal Grand Jury [WJTV]

KPMG, Ernst & Young Sneak on to U.S. News Tax Firm Ranking

You may or may not be aware that U.S. News & World Report is the shot caller when it comes to ranking law schools (much to the chagrin of some) and now (to even more chagrin) the magazine is delving into extensive law firm rankings and the Big 4 will enjoy a little bit of perceived prestige that comes along with these rankings.

Christ. We’re barely into rankings/list season and they’ve already chalked up working moms and consulting rankings and U.S. News is now throwing around its weight with this new list.

Granted, virtually no accounting firms will even get a whiff of this list but something tells us that because U.S. News has decided to dive head first into ranking law firms by practice are the Big 4 will be jockeying to make the tax list, even though it is a sliver of a much larger and broader ranking that they won’t be included on at all.

Excuse us while we choke down the vomit that we caught making it’s way out.


Why the hell not?!? U.S. News figured that the world couldn’t do without it’s rankings-for-hire in one more area for the legal field but this time the Big 4 will enjoy a bit of a ride on this wave.

Right. The list. The two of Big Four of course, make their way on the ranking for tax firms: Ernst & Young falls into the coveted Tier 1 (includes 36 firms) and KPMG drops on Tier 2 (47 firms). There were a total out of 119 firms across three tiers.

Admittedly, this is an opportunity for both KPMG and E&Y to boast their tax practice prowess over Deloitte and PwC who don’t appear on the list at all. That being said, Deloitte and PwC enjoy higher spots on the consulting rankings so they’re probably not overly concerned although no one turns down a notch on the bedpost if they can get it.

What this new ranking ultimately will be is one more marketing tool for the firms to use on the impressionable recruits and experienced hires who want to work in top notch – TOP NOTCH! – tax practice. Be it lawyers or CPAs, the firms will tout this ranking to their tax professionals (if not firm-wide) to throw around ONE. MORE. LIST. to impress the trousers off the masses but now people will be saying, “Oh, this is a U.S. News ranking.”

So for the Big 4 to be included in this “prestigious” ranking is a little bit, as Elie Mystal states, like “Christmas morning – if only Santa were a jolly red prestige whore.”

U.S. News Tax Firm Rankings [TaxProf Blog]
Best Law Firms [U.S. News & World Report]
U.S. News Launches First Official Law Firm Rankings [ATL]

Deadline Watch ’10: Happy September 15th!

Whether this marks the end of your tax season for 2010 or is just a pit stop on the way to October 15th, it’s certainly a day that gets marked on the calendar of many a tax sage.


In case you’re completely oblivious to the significance of this day, it marks the extended filing deadline for corporations, partnerships and trusts. That amounts to metric asston of returns and there’s probably more than a few people that suffer nervous breakdowns on the road to this annual deadline.

Whether or not you’ll be drinking your lunch today, it’s a nice reminder (or an excruciating one) that all things – including CFOs and Lindsay Lohan (what’s taking so long?) – eventually pass.

You can express joy or resentment about your successful completion of tax season 2010. It was your last, right? Sure. We’ve heard that before. Anyway, if this marks end, go enjoy yourself this evening.

But of course, we haven’t forgotten that there are plenty of you that have 30 days to go. Feel free to bitch and moan and then get back to work.

It’s Unlikely That the Anti-Muslim Crowd Will Be Appeased By a Single Tax Conviction

Just a hunch.

A federal jury on Thursday convicted the co-founder of an Islamic charity chapter who was accused of helping smuggle $150,000 to Muslim fighters in Chechnya.

Pete Seda was convicted of one count of conspiracy to defraud the government and one count of filing a false tax return. His lawyers said they would appeal.


But forget religion for a minute. What burns us up is that this guy Seda is blaming his accountant for the whole mess:

Seda claimed the money was intended as a tithe that his accountant failed to disclose on a tax return for the U.S. chapter of the Al-Haramain Islamic Foundation in Ashland, Ore. The foundation has been declared a terrorist organization by the U.S. government.

On the other hand, isn’t throwing an accountant under the bus something all religions can embrace? We’re searching for the common ground here, people.

Islamic charity co-founder convicted on tax charge [AP]

Just So You’re Aware: Romanian Pols Vote Down Witch Tax Due to Curse Risk

That’s what’s being claimed anyway:

Lawmakers Alin Popoviciu and Cristi Dugulescu of the ruling Democratic Liberal Party drafted a law where witches and fortune tellers would have to produce receipts, and would also be held liable for wrong predictions, a measure which was part of the government’s drive to increase revenue.

Romania’s Senate voted down the proposal Tuesday. Popoviciu claimed lawmakers were frightened of being cursed.

It’s unclear if Popoviciu and Dugulescu will try to redraft the law.

Maria Campina, a well-known Romanian witch, told Realitatea TV Thursday it is difficult to tax thousands of fortune tellers and witches partly because of the erratic sums of money they receive.

What’s unclear is how the God-fearing Romanian Tea Partiers feel about the situation since the Devil’s work is clearly being done without any appropriate sin tax.

[via TaxProf and Tax Docket]

Louisiana Is Exempting Virtually All Deadly Weapons (and Accessories!) from Sales Tax This Weekend

At midnight this morning, a sales tax holiday began in the Bayou State on anything covered under the Second Amendment and a whole bunch of other stuff too.

Louisiana even went to the trouble of slapping together a 30-second ad:


Shockingly, American flags were completely omitted from this ad, which leads us to believe that there isn’t any political motive here, although this is only the second “Second Amendment Sales Tax Holiday.” You can safely assume that prior to 2009, Louisianians were not in fear of their freedom being taken away from them but since arackbay bamaoay started running things, people are arming themselves to the teeth for the impending roundup of gun snatching by the Feds.

For reference, here’s a list of everything that will be tax free but it boils down to this:

• Accessories designed to be used for hunting.
• Shotguns, rifles, pistols, revolvers or other handguns.
• Ammunition intended to be fired from a gun or firearm.
• Animal feed for consumption by game which can be legally hunted.
• Apparel such as safety gear, camouflage clothing, jackets, hats, gloves, mittens, face masks and thermal underwear for use while hunting.
• Off-road vehicles such as all terrain vehicles designed for hunting.

Not listed above but included in the exemption are “Knives that are manufactured and marketed as being primarily for use in hunting,” in case you’re one of those cold-blooded types that prefer killing with your bare hands. This does not include the amazing Ginsu Knife™ or other kitchen miracle blades.

Also not exempt are hunting dogs (taxed?) nor are “toy guns [Ed. note: wait, guns aren’t toys?] and vessels or off road vehicles utilized as children’s toys.” Additionally, “golf carts, bikes, motorcycles, tractors, or motor vehicles which may be legally driven on highways,” aren’t eligible.

So load up people. Hunting season is right around the corner. Although, for the sake of peace, try to leave the Democrats alone.

2010 Second Amendment Weekend Sales Tax Holiday is Sept. 3rd, 4th, & 5th [LA Dept. of Rev. via Don’t Mess with Taxes]

Ex-KPMG Senior Manager Convicted of Selling Tax Shelters Is 50% Less Poorer Today

A win is a win and the U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals handed one to John Larson, one of three defendants sentenced last year for selling illegal tax shelters. The Court “found Larson’s [$6 million] fine too high, citing a lack of jury findings to support a fine above $3 million. It returned that part of the case to the lower court to recalculate any fine.”


That’s more or less where the good news ends. The court did uphold the convictions of Larson and his two co-defendants – ex-KPMG Partner Robert Pfaff and ex-Brown & Wood partner Raymond Ruble. Larson was sentenced to a 10 year prison term last year. Pfaff received 8 years and Ruble 6-1/2 years.

Appeals court upholds KPMG tax shelter convictions [Reuters]

Paul Hogan Returns to Australia to Bury His Mother and Now Australia Won’t Let Him Leave

And you thought the IRS was a bunch of cold SOBs.

To be fair, the Aussies are pretty bent out of shape over the long-running dispute over taxes owed on Mick’s $37+ million in earnings. Hogan has responded to all the Australian Taxation Office’s requests with a consistent “blow me” which probably hasn’t gone over to well Down Under.

Actor Paul Hogan, best known for playing an outback hunter in the “Crocodile Dundee” movies, has been stopped from leaving Australia until he pays a multi-million dollar tax bill, according to his lawyer.

The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) served U.S.-based Hogan with a departure prohibition order when he returned to Sydney last Friday for the funeral of his 101-year-old mother Florence, his lawyer Andrew Robinson said in a statement.

This prevents the 70-year-old actor from leaving Australia until any alleged tax debts are paid or arrangements made for the tax liability to be discharged.

Taxman bars Crocodile Dundee from leaving Australia [Reuters]